How will AI change intelligence and decision-making?

Avner Barnea

Abstract


The world is facing a rapid pace of changes with a heightened sense of uncertainty, ambiguity, and complexity in both government and business landscapes.  New threats and major changes in the world order are creating an external environment that demands closer monitoring and greater anticipatory and predictive skills.  Deeper analysis and speed of action are becoming more important for agile organizations and governments. The needs to upgrade the capabilities of intelligence analysts, mostly in strategic intelligence, have been known for quite a long time. Scholars who are looking into intelligence failures1 and other major national security2 and business3 events when decision-makers were not warned in time, seek expert tools and methodologies to avoid these failures4. Management is constantly concerned, aspiring to receive better decisions by relying on solid analysis in order to better understand the challenges ahead5. The current direction is in the same direction, while new emerging technologies enable theory and practice to move forward. Artificial intelligence (AI) capabilities definitely are jumping two stairs up. It looks that through new AI tools, the value of humans will not become redundant but rather improve its outcomes by relying on better intelligence for their decisions.

Keywords


Market Market Intelligence, Business Intelligence, Competitive Intelligence, Information Systems, Geo-Economics

Full Text:

PDF

References


Bar-Joseph, U., and McDermott, R. Intelligence Success & Failure, The Human Factor, Oxford University Press, 2017.

Marrin, S. "Evaluating CIA's Analytical Performance: Reflections of a Former Analyst", Orbis, 326 (2013).

Gilad, B. Early Warning, NY Amacom, 2004.

Betts, R. K. "Two faces of intelligence failure: September 11 and Iraq’s missing WMD." Political Science Quarterly, 122, 4 (2007): 585-606.

Bisson, C., and Barnea, A. “Competitive Intelligence: From being the “eyes and

the ears” to becoming “the brain” of companies”, Competitive Intelligence Magazine, Vol 23, no. 4, Fall, 2018.

Barnea, A. "Failures in National and Business Intelligence: a Comparative Study", A Thesis Submitted for the Degree "Doctor of Philosophy", University of Haifa, Faculty of Social Sciences, School of Political Sciences (2015).

Betts, R. "Analysis, War and Decision: Why intelligence failures are inevitable", Studies in Intelligence, Journal of the American Intelligence Professional (2014). https://www.cia.gov/library/readingroom/docs/DOC_0000612718.pdf

Colson, E. “What AI-Driven Decision Making Looks Like”, Harvard Business Review, July 08, 2019, https://hbr.org/2019/07/what-ai-driven-decision-making-looks-like

PwC, “Artificial intelligence may be a game changer for pricing”, 2019,

https://www.pwc.be/en/news-publications/2019/artificial-intelligence-may-be-game-changer-for-pricing.html

Ibid.

Russell, Stuart J.; Norvig, Peter (2003), Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach (2nd ed.), Upper Saddle River, New Jersey: Prentice Hall, p. 4.

Chui, Michael and McCarthy Brian, “An Executive Guide to AI”, McKinsey, October , 2018.

https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/McKinsey/Business%20Functions/McKinsey%20Analytics/Our%20Insights/An%20executives%20guide%20to%20AI/An-executives-guide-to-AI.ashx

One of the best books on intelligence analysis: Pherson, K. and

Pherson, R. Critical Thinking for Strategic Intelligence, CQ Press, 2017.

Shalev, A. Israel’s Intelligence Assessment before the Yom Kippur War: disentangling deception and distraction, Sussex Academic Press, Australia (2010).

Goldstein, P. "Why Intelligence Agencies Are So Interested in AI?" Fedtech Magazine, Oct. 13(2017), https://fedtechmagazine.com/article/2017/10/why-intelligence-agencies-are-so-interested-ai

Tucker, p. "What the CIA'S Tech Director Wants from AI", Defense One, September 6, (2017), http://cdn.defenseone.com/a/defenseone/interstitial.html?v=7.12.0&rf=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.defenseone.com%2Ftechnology%2F2017%2F09%2Fcia-technology-director-artificial-intelligence%2F140801%2F

Bughin, J., Chui, M. and McCarthey, B. (2017). "How to make AI work for your business", Harvard Business Review, August.

Anderson, N. (1974). "Cognitive Algebra: Integration Theory Applied to Social Attribution", Advances in Experimental Social Psychology 26:1-101.

McKinsey & Company, “Enduring Ideas: The 7-S Framework”, March 2008, https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/enduring-ideas-the-7-s-framework

Margretta, J. (2011). Understanding Michael Porter: The Essential Guide to Competition and Strategy, Harvard Business Press.

Porter, M. (1998). Competitive Strategy: Techniques for Analyzing Industries and Competitors, Free Press.

Søilen, K.S. (2019) How managers stay informed about the surrounding world. Journal of Intelligence Studies in Business. 9 (1) 28-35.

Lashgari, M., Sutton-Brady, C., Solberg Søilen, K., & Ulfvengren, P. (2018). Adoption strategies of social media in B2B firms: a multiple case study approach. Journal of Business & Industrial Marketing, 33(5), 730-743.

Tontini, G., & Söilen, K. S. (2017). Nonlinear antecedents of customer satisfaction and loyalty in third-party logistics services (3PL). Asia Pacific Journal of Marketing and Logistics, (just-accepted), http://www.emeraldinsight.com/doi/pdfplus/10.1108/APJML-09-2016-0173

Søilen, K. S. (2017). Why care about competitive intelligence and market intelligence? The case of Ericsson and the Swedish Cellulose Company. Journal of Intelligence Studies in Business, 7(2).

Solberg Søilen, K. (2013). Exhibit Marketing & Trade Show Intelligence - Successful Boothmanship and Booth Design. Springer Verlag, Berlin

Solberg Søilen, K. (2012). Geoeconomics. Ventus Publishing ApS/Bookboon, London (50 000+ downloads per year)

Jenster, P., Solberg Søilen, K. (2009). Market Intelligence: Building Strategic Insight. Copenhagen Business School Press, Denmark

Solberg Søilen, K. and Huber, S. (2006). 20 svenska studier för små och medelstora företag – pedagogik och vetenskaplig metod. Studentlitteratur, Lund

Solberg Søilen, K. (2005). Introduction to Public and Private Intelligence. Studentlitteratur, Lund

Solberg Søilen, K. (2005). En liten bok i Logikk. Hvordan lære å tenke. GRIN Humanities, Norderstedt, Germany

Solberg Søilen, K. (2005). Wirtschaftsspionage in Verhandlungen aus Informationsökonomischer Perspektive - Eine Interdisziplinäre Analyse. Dissertation. Faculty of Economics/Wirtschaftswissenshaftlichen Fakultät Universität Leipzig, Germany

Söilen, K. S. (2017). Why the social sciences should be based in evolutionary theory: the example of geoeconomics and intelligence studies. Journal of Intelligence Studies in Business, 7(1).

Solberg Søilen, K. (2016). Economic and industrial espionage at the start of the 21st century–Status quaestionis. Journal of Intelligence Studies in Business, 6(3).

Solberg Søilen, K. (2016). Users’ perceptions of Data as a Service (DaaS). Journal of Intelligence Studies in Business, 6(2), 43-51.

Solberg Søilen, K. (2016). A research agenda for intelligence studies in business. Journal of Intelligence Studies in Business, 6(1), 21-36.

Gedda, David, Nilsson, Billy, Såthén, Zebastian and Solberg Søilen, Klaus (2016). Crowdfunding: Finding the optimal platform for funders and entrepreneurs. Technology Innovation Management Review, 6, 3, pp. 31-40

Solberg Søilen, Klaus (2015). A place for intelligence studies as a scientific discipline. Journal of Intelligence Studies in Business, Vol. 5, No 3, pp. 34-46.

Oubrich, Mourad, Aziza, Amine, Solberg Søilen, Klaus (2015). The impact of CRM on QoE: An exploratory study from mobile phone industry in Morocco. Journal of Intelligence Studies in Business, Vol 5, No 2, pp. 22-35.

Drozdz, Sebastian, Dufwa, Marcus, Meconnen, Robiel, Solberg Søilen, Klaus (2015). An assessment of Customer Shared Value in the restaurant industry. Theoretical and Applied Economics, No. 4, 605, pp. 85-98

Granquist, C., Strömberg, F., Solberg Søilen, K. (2015). Games as a marketing channel – the impact of players and spectators. International Journal of Electronic Business Management, Vol. 13, No. 1, pp. 57-65

Vriens, Dirk, Solberg Søilen, Klaus (2014). Disruptive Intelligence - How to gather Information to deal with disruptive innovations. Journal of Intelligence Studies in Business, Vol. 4, No 3, pp. 63-78

Solberg Søilen, Klaus (2014). A survey of users’ perspectives and preferences as to the value of JISIB – A spot-check. Journal of Intelligence Studies in Business, Vol. 4, No 2, pp. 61-65

Svensson, B., Frestad Solér, M. Solberg Søilen, K. (2014). Bara segrar bygger inga varumärken, Svensk Idrottsforskning, Nr 3, pp. 14-19

Tontini, G., Söilen, K. S., & Zanchett, R. (2017). Nonlinear antecedents of customer satisfaction and loyalty in third-party logistics services (3PL). Asia Pacific Journal of Marketing and Logistics, 29(5), 1116-1135.

Agostino, Alessandro, Solberg Søilen, Klaus, Gerritsen, Bart (2013). Cloud solution in Business Intelligence for SMEs –vendor and customer perspectives, Journal of Intelligence Studies in Business Vol 3, No 3, pp. 5-28

Solberg Søilen, K. (2013). An overview of articles on Competitive Intelligence in JCIM and CIR. Journal of Intelligence Studies in Business Vol 3, No 1, pp. 44-58.

Solberg Søilen, K., Jenster, P. (2013). The Relationship between Strategic Planning and Company Performance – A Chinese perspective. Journal of Intelligence Studies in Business, Vol 3, No 1, pp. 15-30.

Tontini, G., Solberg Søilen, K., Silveira, A. (2013). How interactions of service attributes affect customer satisfaction: A study of the Kano model’s attributes. Total Quality Management & Business Excellence, Volume 24, Issue 11-12, pages 1253-1271

Solberg Søilen, K., Nerme, P., Stemström, C., Darefelt, N. (2013). Usage of internet banking among different segments – trust and information needs. Journal of Internet Banking and Commerce, Vol 18, No 2, pp. 2-18

Fri, W., Pehrsson, T., Solberg Søilen, K. (2013). How the phases of cluster development are associated with innovation – the case of China. International Journal of Innovation Science, Vol. 5, Nr. 1, pp. 31-43.

Hansson, L., Wrangmo, A. Solberg Søilen, K. (2013). Optimal ways for companies to use Facebook as a marketing channel. Journal of Information, Communication and Ethics in Society. Vol. 11 Iss: 2, pp. 112 – 126.

Solberg Søilen, K., Tontini, G. (2013). Knowledge Management systems and Human Resource Management policies for Innovation benchmarking: a study at ST Ericsson. Internatinal Journal of Innovation Science, Vol 5, No 3, pp. 159-171

Yasmina, A., Solberg Søilen, K., Vriens, D. (2012). Using the SSAV model to evaluate Business Intelligence Software. Journal of Intelligence Studies in Business, Vol 2, No 1, pp. 29-40.

Solberg Søilen, K. Hasslinger, A. (2012). Factors shaping vendor differentiation in the Business Intelligence software industry. Journal of Intelligence Studies in Business, Vol 2, No 3, pp. 48-54.

Sabanovic, A., Solberg Søilen, K. (2012). Customers’ Expectations and Needs in the Business Intelligence Software Market. Journal of Intelligence Studies in Business, Vol 2, No 1, pp. 5-20.

Solberg Søilen, K. (2012). The Fallacy of the Service Economy. European Business Review, Vol 24, Iss: 4, pp. 308-319.




DOI: https://doi.org/10.37380/jisib.v1i1.564

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.
Cookies are small text files that are placed on your computer by websites that you visit. They are widely used in order to make websites work, or work more efficiently, as well as to provide information to the owners of the site.
OK!


JISIB is indexed by Web of Science (Emerging list), ESCI, SCOPUS, EBSCO, DOAJ, Google Scholar, EconBib and SCImago, and is ranked as a Level 1 publication by the Norwegian Social Science Data Services and the Finnish Publication Forum. 

 

                

 Journal Index by SCIMAGO