A Bayesian approach to developing a strategic early warning system for the French milk market

Authors

  • Christophe Bisson
  • Furkan Gurpinar

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.37380/jisib.v7i3.277

Keywords:

Bayesian networks, competitive intelligence, forecasting, milk market, strategic early warning system

Abstract

A new approach is provided in our paper for creating a strategic early warningsystem allowing the estimation of the future state of the milk market as scenarios. This is inline with the recent call from the EU commission for tools that help to better address such ahighly volatile market. We applied different multivariate time series regression and Bayesiannetworks on a pre-determined map of relations between macro-economic indicators. Theevaluation of our findings with root mean square error (RMSE) performance score enhancesthe robustness of the prediction model constructed. Our model could be used by competitiveintelligence teams to obtain sharper scenarios, leading companies and public organisations tobetter anticipate market changes and make more robust decisions.

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Issue

Vol. 7 No. 3 (2017): Journal of Intelligence Studies in Business

Section

Article

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